Lê-se na Forbes que o grande feito da Irlanda em dizer adeus à Troika e voltar ao mercado sem rede tem mais a ver com a impossibilidade política de a Europa aprovar as linhas de crédito do ESM e, logo, um programa cautelar, dados os meandros das negociações interpartidárias alemãs para formar um governo, do que com a excelente saúde financeira do país, resultante da boa conclusão de um programa de austeridade.

There is, of course, a narrow political benefit to the Irish government from this “clean” exit, so they can triumph the full restoration of “sovereignty.” However, I don’t think they are so cynical as to have made this decision purely for that populist reason. Instead, my assessment is that the precautionary credit line could not be arranged now because it was politically impossible and that the Irish government are merely putting a brave face on what is a bad outcome.

The political problem is that credit lines from ESM require the approval of all euro area member states and this was not going to be possible now. Germany still does not have a government as Angela Merkel’s CDU continue negotiations with the SPD to form a coalition. During these negotiations, the SPD has regularly insisted that they would not support an ESM credit line for Ireland unless the country followed a series of highly specific policy recommendations.

SPD requirements for approval of a credit line included raising the corporate tax rate and introducing a financial transaction tax. The SPD also ruled out any deal that involved used funds from the credit line to recapitalize banks.

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Irá Portugal a tempo? O que fará o BCE? Perguntas e mais perguntas. A confusão política e monetária é total.