Why are experts (along with us nonexperts) so bad at making predictions? The world is a messy, complex and contingent place with countless intervening variables and confounding factors, which our brains are not equipped to evaluate. We evolved the capacity to make snap decisions based on short-term predictions, not rational analysis about long-term investments, and so we deceive ourselves into thinking that experts can foresee the future. This self-deception among professional prognosticators was investigated by University of California, Berkeley, professor Philip E. Tetlock, as reported in his 2005 book Expert Political Judgment. After testing 284 experts in political science, economics, history and journalism in a staggering 82,361 predictions about the future, Tetlock concluded that they did little better than “a dart-throwing chimpanzee.”
Aviso aos pacientes: este blogue é antianalgésico, pirético e inflamatório. Em caso de agravamento dos sintomas, escreva aos enfermeiros de plantão.
Apenas para administração interna; o fabricante não se responsabiliza por usos incorrectos deste fármaco.
Apenas para administração interna; o fabricante não se responsabiliza por usos incorrectos deste fármaco.
hum, como primo de champanzé compete-me recordar isto, tem muitos comentários que parecem bem informados.
invoca-se Leonor, infanta de Portugal e imperatriz da Alemanha,
virou os escudetes laterais para cima antes de todos que eu conheça.